Who's Afraid of Silvio Berlusconi?

posted by Geoff Andrews at Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Open Democracy 27 - 07 - 2009

The exposure of Silvio Berlusconi's public-personal behaviour continues. The website of L'Espresso magazine has made available audio-tapes containing sordid details of the Italian prime minister's alleged overnight tryst with a prostitute on the very evening of Barack Obama's election as United States president, 4-5 November 2008. In a sense, however, it is the way such revelations have been handled in Italy as much as the evidence itself that is most telling.

What the reception confirms is something that is now also becoming apparent to the wider world: that Silvio Berlusconi presides over a regime. The Italian public broadcaster Rai is directly under his control and refuses to discuss the scandal; Berlusconi himself owns most of the other TV stations. The consequences for Italian democracy, and for Italy's credibility within the European Union, are now matters of grave concern (see "Berlusconi's scandal, Italy's tragedy", 29 June 2009).

The sole channels of serious information for Italian citizens are La Repubblica and L'Espresso (both owned by the same publishing house), along with one or two other broadsheets. The foreign press - most notably the British - has by contrast provided sustained discussion of the issue. Silvio Berlusconi's response has been that the attacks on him are part of a "subversive plot" organised in collaboration with the Italian left.

This is nonsense, on two grounds: there is no plot, and the foreign press's effective and appropriate critical examination of Berlusconi's conduct is of a kind that the Italian left is quite unable of producing. Indeed, part of the reason why Silvio Berlusconi's regime has consolidated its power in recent times has been the absence of any real opposition. Dario Franceschini, the present leader of the main centre-left force Partito Democratico (Democratic Party), claims that Berlusconi will be replaced by autumn 2009; but it is clear that his own party is in no shape to take over.

A deeper vacuum

Two recent events highlight the non-existence of a proper opposition in Italy. The first is a full-page appeal-advertisement placed on 9 July 2009 in the respected International Herald Tribune newspaper by Antonio Di Pietro, who in the early 1990s led the mane pulite (clean hands) investigation into political corruption and now heads the Italia dei Valori (Italy of Values) party. "Italian democracy is in danger" the appeal declared. The commitment of Di Pietro's party to a firm and progressive agenda - constitutional government and the rule of law, transparency and anti-mafia reform - should make it a shaping force, and in a more normal country it surely would be. But at under 10% of the vote it remains marginalised.

The second is an announcement on 12 July by the comic blogger Beppe Grillo - an acerbic and relentless critic of the corruption at the heart of Italy's political class - of his candidature for the primary stage of elections to choose a new leader of the Democratic Party. This "provocation" was ridiculed by some of the party's apparatchiks, who nonetheless made immediate efforts to prevent Grillo acquiring a party card.

Beppe Grillo's criticisms, both of the power of Berlusconi and of the impotence of the opposition, strike a chord with many Italians. Many others may not see him as a serious figure, but his very influence is a sign of a deeper vacuum in the body-politic.

Together, these developments illuminate the long decline of the Italian left - since the end of the cold war, and notably after the tangentopoli crisis - to lead Italy towards the democratic settlement which the "second republic" had promised.

Indeed, by a cruel twist the main beneficiary of tangentopoli was the close friend and part-protégé of Bettino Craxi, the (socialist) Italian premier whom the corruption scandal toppled and then drove to seek exile: Silvio Berlusconi himself (see Perry Anderson's magisterial analysis of this period and its consequences in the London Review of Books: "An Entire Order Converted into What It Was Intended to End" [12 February 2009] and "An Invertebrate Left" [12 March 2009]).

The Italian left seems - the first of the L'Ulivo (Olive Tree) governments of 1996-2001 apart - to have learned nothing from a series of defeats. The "transformation" of the majority of the old Partito Comunista Italiano (Italian Communist Party) - a mass-membership party widely respected for its wise leadership, long-standing opposition to fascism and ability to implant itself into the popular culture - into (successively) the Partito Democratico della Sinistra (Democratic Party of the Left) and the Democratic Party has been an incoherent process beset by identity-crises and endless infighting. The past is a shackle and the future a fog; all that remains is the "morbid symptoms".

A phantom opposition

The most persistent failure of the centre-left has been the unwillingness to carry through the legal and democratic reforms Antonio Di Pietro and others argued for. Above all, the centre-left missed numerous opportunities to pass legislation which would have prevented Silvio Berlusconi's "conflicts of interest"; it even accepted the parliamentary-immunity law which has effectively kept the three-time Italian prime minister out of jail.

The leaders who presided over this enduring infirmity are still there. Some even retain respect amounting to reverence among the centre-left's followers. They include Massimo D'Alema, who abandoned the "conflicts-of-interest" legal effort in an attempt to reach agreement over bicameral reform (which didn't even succeed) contributed greatly to Berlusconi's initial rise to power. Even today elements of the centre-left regard D'Alema as the "greatest politician of the last twenty years"; yet he has done nothing significant and in most serious democratic countries would have been removed a long time ago.

There are worse than D'Alema. Walter Veltroni, the first leader of the Democratic Party, embarked upon a disastrous strategy of appeasing Berlusconi's excesses by opposing what he called "anti-Berlusconism" as a prerequisite to negotiating constitutional and electoral reform. It was a crucial misjudgment of the kind of adversary he and the centre-left were dealing with.

Veltroni had begun his new political project by raising expectations of a genuine breakthrough, but his preference for portentous statements over measurable political advance soon undermined his credibility; the contrast between his embrace of Barack Obama's presidential-election slogan (Si Puo Fare [yes we can]) and his lack of any of the American leader's vision or courage was stark.

The arc of Veltroni's rise and fall was swift: in the election of April 2008, he became the seventh centre-left leader to fall before the Silvio Berlusconi steamroller (and one of the most ineffective, which is saying a lot). The impact of Walter Veltroni's approach was, as the Economist rightly said, to make his side of the political divide a "phantom opposition".

A clear danger

The emergence in Italy of vigorous civil-society opposition to Berlusconi (including the girotondi) makes the non-appearance of any strong reformist political movement since the days of tangentopoli even more disturbing. What Perry Anderson calls the "invertebrate left" bears much of the blame, for its absence of principle and courage. The Democratic Party's current preoccupation with electing a new leader shows no sign of breaking the pattern at a time when offering a clear alternative agenda to Silvio Berlusconi's is vital.

Silvio Berlusconi is increasingly reliant for his continuation in power on the crony-filled networks he has established in key institutions and positions. His patronage extends to his rightwing political allies; a process consolidated by the merger of his Forza Italia with the Alleanza Nazionale (National Alliance) in 2008, and a further incorporation in March 2009. The most recent scandals have begun to erode some of his popular support and encourage his critics. But it is important to recognise that - after La Repubblica's questions and openDemocracy's challenge, after criticism from Catholic leaders and foreign media, after revelations of shocking public-personal behaviour - the underlying political reality is unchanged: there is no alternative to Silvio Berlusconi.

The plight of Italian democracy offers much to worry about. The lack of serious and effective political opposition is one of the most worrying factors of all. It's time to lay aside the fear, and rise to a clear and present danger.

Italy and the G8: Voices from L'Aquila

posted by Geoff Andrews at Sunday, July 12, 2009

Open Democracy 10 - 07 - 2009

The earthquake-shattered Italian town chosen to host the G8 summit is also the site of a passionate citizens’ protest against Silvio Berlusconi and for justice, reports Geoff Andrews.

The location for the Group of Eight (G8) summit of 8-10 July 2009 - the town of L'Aquila, in the region of Abruzzo, devastated by an earthquake on 6 April which killed around 300 people - was intended to be a showpiece political opportunity for its host, Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi. But his opponents too were never going to miss the chance for a high-profile display of their own agenda and ambitions.

So it has proved. Barack Obama's journey by car through the medieval centre of L'Aquila on the opening day of the summit would have brought him in sight of the banners decorating the town and its environs - most graphically on the nearby Roio hillside - emblazoned with the slogan: "Yes We Camp". The inventive phrase was adopted by local citizens among the town's 68,000 population to draw visiting leaders' attention to the plight of the thousands of people still affected by the earthquake - the 23,000 who are still living in 180 tent-cities, and the 30,000 who have been temporarily relocated along the coast. "Yes We Camp" is more than a clever play on the United States president's campaign cry: it is also a timely reminder to Silvio Berlusconi that "we, the people of L'Aquila" will pursue their goal of having their houses rebuilt and their town restored.

The slogan was adopted by the Comitato 3e32, the grassroots citizens-action group set up days after the earthquake, its name taken from the time of day the disaster struck. It represents those at the sharp end of a terrible natural calamity, and is an inconvenient reminder to Silvio Berlusconi that the claims of the Aquilani will not go away. More widely, 3e32 is a local, grassroots organisation that also reflects the best of Italian civic movements. Its story - part of a mosaic that has become familiar to me over the last eight years as I have travelled across Italy - tells us much about contemporary Italy: the hopes and fears, the fight against corruption, a real sense of tragedy, and - above all else - a profound failure of political leadership.

The event

The hastily arranged G8 summit took place a few kilometres from the centre of L'Aquila in a place called Coppito; more precisely, in a training school for the Guardia di Finanza (Italy's financial police). It seems an appropriate venue, given the list of financial crimes allegedly associated with the Italian prime minister.

The facilities - artificial lawns, an ad-hoc basketball court, and (of course) extreme security measures - are also typical of Berlusconi's attempts to present an image of Italian strength and authority. His own TV channels and newspapers have been showing a succession of eulogies and images of Berlusconi the statesman. Barack Obama's praise of Giorgio Napolitano, the president of the Italian republic, was quickly converted into an endorsement of their own padrone.

The core agenda of the G8 - the world economic crisis, international aid, Iran and climate change - is both important and international. But many in Italy believe that the whole event, including the decision to move it from Sardinia to L'Aquila, has for Silvio Berlusconi a narrow political purpose: to put on a "show" that will restore the Italian premier's flagging leadership and declining credibility among his international partner. Some have compared his current predicament to that of Benito Mussolini, as satirised by Pier Paolo Pasolini in The Last Days of Salò. There is no Pasolini to make the connection between the current Italian leader's sexual perversions and his obsession with power - but there are citizens' movements committed to the pursuit of truth and justice.

The committee

To travel through L'Aquila three months after the earthquake is a difficult and sobering experience. The ruins of the city resemble a mixture of war-zone and ghost-town. Everywhere there are dilapidated buildings, holes in the tarmac, frequent road-blocks, areas cordoned off by the civil-protection units - and tents. The constant sound of drilling is an optimistic reminder that urgent efforts are being made to restore some sense of normality. Several local citizens have set up makeshift shops and bars in tents.

At the Genoa summit of the G8 in 2001, we were prevented from entering the city-centre "red zones". In L'Aquila, too, these zones have reappeared. This time, however, it is not the "no global" forces that have been denied entry, but the local aquilani who are forbidden from entering the heart of their town. It seems another confirmation that the decision to move the summit here was made less in the interests of the local citizens and more as part of a characteristic media spectacle designed for the aggrandisement of Silvio Berlusconi.

It is lunchtime at Parco Unicef, on the middle day of the summit. This is the headquarters of Comitato 3e32. A band plays in the central marquee; people join the queue for pasta; a couple throw a Frisbee back and forth. There is a spirit of optimism, defiance and solidarity among the mainly young people here. Regular meetings decide on tactics and strategy, and how to pursue their goal of reconstructing damaged houses in the city as well as the general rules of living together. There are no leaders and many people contribute to the discussion.

The ideal

One of the activists is Claudia Pajewski, born in L'Aquila, who was involved in setting up 3e32 along with friends and people she remembered only by face from her early years. It started days after the earthquake, from a series of sms exchanges. "We said to each other: ‘This is terrible. We have to do something'". She is dismissive of Silvio Berlusconi's promises. "He took a long time to come and visit after the earthquake, though during the [European parliament] elections he came many times". She believes that he is using L'Aquila to revive his faltering leadership, yet offers only "false" promises.

"The day of the funeral was one of the worst days", Claudia told me. "Everything was organised for the TV. They didn't even read out all the names of those who died, but instead the list of dignitaries who attended".

Claudia Pajewski and her colleagues in 3e32 have a simple demand: to reconstruct the damaged homes, including those in the centre of the city. Instead she fears that Berlusconi's hollow promise to "build better homes" will result only in some cheap new houses on the outskirts of the city, and that the claims of the citizens for a proper restoration will soon be forgotten. Like many others, she is also convinced that the contracts for rebuilding will go the mafia. For Claudia, this is because "the problem of the mafia is the problem of Italy".

In many ways L'Aquila is indeed a true reflection on the way Italy has been governed in recent years. "I am ashamed to be Italian", a phrase repeated to me by Claudia, is now a frequent comment from Italians living under Silvio Berlusconi. When people talk of the mafia being involved in building contracts in L'Aquila, they do so with resignation. A short time before the G8 summit began, Massimo Cialente - the mayor of L'Aquila - led a torchlight procession through the shattered town. It was a dignified protest from citizens whose underlying objective was, in the mayor's words, the pursuit of truth and justice. In the Italy of Silvio Berlusconi, before and after the G8 summit, such an ideal remains a long way off.

Lo scandolo Berlusconi, una tragedia per l'Italia

posted by Geoff Andrews at Saturday, July 11, 2009

La Repubblica, 4 July, 2009

"A causa dell'erosione della vita politica del Paese di cui Berlusconi si è reso
responsabile nemmeno la sua dipartita potrebbe offrire all'Italia una chiara via verso il rinnovamento"


Silvio Berlusconi, lo statista-populista di maggior successo dell'era moderna, ha messo a punto ormai da molto tempo l'arte di passare oltre la testa dei politici di professione per mirare direttamente alla "pancia" - anziché al "cervello" - dell'italiano medio. Durante i suoi tre mandati da primo ministro (dal maggio 1994 al gennaio 1995, dal giugno 2001 al maggio 2006 e dal maggio 2008 a oggi) Berlusconi ha assistito all'alternarsi di sette leader del centrosinistra, finendo cosí per affermarsi come figura dominante del panorama politico italiano. In questo, la sua abilità nel controllare i mezzi di comunicazione e trarre vantaggio persino dalle critiche che gli vengono rivolte si è rivelata una risorsa di valore inestimabile.

Questo modello di dominazione potrebbe forse cambiare di qui a breve? Che la lunga egemonia di Berlusconi abbia ormai i giorni contati? L'ultima raffica di vicende e scandali - riguardanti i suoi rapporti con giovani donne, a cominciare da Noemi Letizia, l'amica diciottenne di Napoli che lo chiama "Papi" - sono certamente le più compromettenti tra quelle che Berlusconi ha dovuto affrontare, e il fatto stesso che egli non sia più in grado di controllare gli eventi è di certo molto significativo.

ORIGINAL ENGLISH VERSION

Si è intanto diffusa la sensazione che nell'ambito della vicenda il destino di Berlusconi abbia assunto un rilievo secondario, dal momento che gli eventi che hanno travolto il premier settantaduenne e a cui la stampa nazionale e internazionale dedicano ormai ampio spazio non possono più essere ridotti ad una semplice questione di condotta personale. La crisi di Berlusconi rispecchia semmai la singolare tragedia dell'Italia moderna.

Una bufera che investe i media e la politica. In passato, Silvio Berlusconi aveva già richiamato su di sé le critiche dei mezzi di comunicazione. Questa volta però dalle continue affermazioni di giovani donne che dichiarano di aver ricevuto da lui denaro in cambio di prestazioni sessuali rivela al cuore della politica italiana la presenza di una trama di raggiri e inganni.

È vero, malgrado le smentite del premier al riguardo, raramente nel corso della sua carriera sfera pubblica e privata sono rimaste separate. Gli ultimi eventi hanno però rivelato con grande eloquenza sino a che punto i valori di Silvio Berlusconi siano profondamente radicati nella vita pubblica italiana.

La sua sprezzante reazione di fronte alle affermazioni di diverse donne - che dichiarano di aver avuto con lui incontri sessuali in cambio di denaro, dell'opportunità di lavorare nel suo network televisivo o della candidatura nel suo partito - indica una tale mancanza di trasparenza all'interno del sistema politico italiano e rappresenta una minaccia alla libertà dei mezzi di comunicazione che in qualsiasi altra democrazia occidentale sarebbero considerate inaccettabili. Per diverse settimane Berlusconi ha ignorato queste dichiarazioni, rifiutandosi inoltre di rispondere alle domande che gli venivano rivolte (tra gli altri, da Open Democracy: vedi Silvio Berlusconi: ten more questions [5 giugno 2009] e Silvio Berlusconi: answers, please [9 giugno 2009]).

Era dunque prevedibile che il primo ministro decidesse di ignorare i tradizionali canali di trasparenza democratica per affidare alla rivista di gossip Chi, di cui è proprietario, le proprie smentite. Il suo comportamento lascia pensare che alla politica, in Italia, sia subentrata la personale esibizione di onnipotenza. In quali abissi potranno ancora sprofondare la decrepita cultura politica nazionale e il suo corpo politico degenere?

Dall'otto al dieci luglio l'Italia ospiterà il G8, e in quell'occasione la condotta del premier sarà al centro dell'attenzione. Nell'ambito della comunità internazionale, Berlusconi è più isolato che mai, e conta come unico stretto alleato il presidente russo Dmitry Medvedev. I segnali che indicano come l'indebolirsi della sua posizione nuoccia alla reputazione stessa dell'Italia sono numerosi, e vanno dalle imbarazzate reazioni degli altri leader di fronte alla sua condotta al tentativo compiuto da un gruppo di esponenti del mondo della cultura di convincere le "first ladies" del G8 a boicottare l'incontro de L'Aquila. Persino i suoi rapporti con la Chiesa cattolica sono tesi: dopo un fugace riavvicinamento avvenuto in occasione del suo tentativo di far approvare un decreto che salvasse la vita di Eluana Englaro, le ultime indiscrezioni emerse sul conto di Berlusconi hanno spinto alcuni autorevoli rappresentanti ecclesiastici ad ammonirlo (l'arcivescovo Angelo Bagnasco, di Genova, ha esplicitamente condannato "gli uomini ubriachi di un delirio di grandezza").

La crisi però non riguarda solo i suoi rapporti con giovani donne. Il 21 maggio scorso Berlusconi aveva definito il Parlamento italiano "inutile", aggiungendo che cento parlamentari sarebbero sufficienti a svolgere il lavoro necessario. Lo scorso febbraio, una sentenza del tribunale ha stabilito che Berlusconi ha corrotto l'avvocato britannico David Mills affinché questi affermasse il falso - Berlusconi intanto, è al riparo da eventuali accuse grazie alla legge sull'immunità parlamentare approvata dal suo governo. Il primo ministro non ha dato alcuna spiegazione al riguardo.

La reiterata mancanza di rispetto nei confronti della trasparenza dei procedimenti democratici da parte del leader eletto del Paese ha spinto La Repubblica - che ha svolto un esemplare lavoro di ricerca della verità nell'operato di Berlusconi - a sottoporgli altre dieci domande (vedi Le dieci domande mai poste al Cavaliere, [14 maggio 2009] e Le dieci nuove domande al Cavaliere [La Repubblica, 26 giugno 2009]).

Anche l'atteggiamento del governo nei confronti dei mezzi di comunicazione che non sono sotto il suo controllo appaiono però problematici. Berlusconi ha esortato le aziende a non comprare spazi pubblicitari sul settimanale L'Espresso, pubblicato dallo stesso gruppo editoriale di cui fa parte La Repubblica, mentre il ministro per la Cultura (nonché stretto alleato di Berlusconi) Sandro Bondi ha definito il quotidiano "una minaccia alla democrazia". Un modo decisamente insolito per definire il normale funzionamento di un giornale nell'ambito di una società libera.

Inoltre, il direttore della rete pubblica Rai - che rientra nell'impero mediatico di Berlusconi - ha deciso di non mandare in onda alcuni particolari riguardanti le accuse che vedono coinvolto il premier, con una decisione che in Gran Bretagna corrisponderebbe al rifiuto da parte delle Bbc di coprire lo scandalo sui rimborsi dei parlamentari.

Berlusconi e quel che verrà. L'Italia è un Paese molto diviso, e le condanne che la stampa internazionale ha lanciato al suo leader toccano solo una parte della popolazione - ma contribuiscono a diffondere un clima di vergogna e imbarazzo tra gli italiani che vivono dentro e fuori l'Italia, la cui identità è legata al personaggio di Silvio Berlusconi. La consapevolezza che le cose non possono continuare in questo modo è sempre più diffusa; e insieme all'intensificarsi delle critiche sollevate dalla stampa estera è aumentato il numero degli italiani che hanno deciso di dare sfogo alla propria rabbia e appellarsi agli alleati occidentali affinché proseguano con le loro indagini.

Tra l'altro, alcuni dei più stretti alleati di Silvio Berlusconi hanno indicato a Guy Dinmore, corrispondente da Roma del Financial Times, di volersi preparare ad un futuro senza di lui (vedi Berlusconi whispers grow louder, pubblicato dal Financial Times il 25 giugno scorso): sono chiaramente molto preoccupati al pensiero di dove possa condurli questa pista di comportamenti dubbi e forse illeciti. Secondo Giuliano Ferrara, direttore de Il Foglio nonché uno dei più scaltri alleati di Berlusconi, l'Italia potrebbe presto trovarsi di fronte ad un nuovo "24 luglio" - in riferimento al giorno (del 1943) in cui Mussolini fu allontanato da Vittorio Emanuele III e in seguito al quale fondò la Repubblica di Salò.

L'Italia si trova ancora una volta alle prese con un leader ossessionato dal potere, che dopo essersi posto al di sopra della legge e ritenendosi invincibile potrebbe decidere, in un estremo gesto di sfida, di far cadere altri insieme a sé.

Viviamo tempi inquietanti per tutti coloro che - a prescindere dal proprio orientamento politico - hanno a cuore l'Italia. Berlusconi non rassegnerà facilmente le dimissioni: se rinunciasse al potere - volontariamente, o sulla scia di pressioni - perderebbe l'immunità parlamentare e rischierebbe di dover rispondere di nuovi capi d'accusa. All'interno del suo partito intanto non è ancora emerso un possibile successore in grado di raccogliere ampi consensi.

L'opposizione continua ad essere molto debole, e non si scorge alcuna imminente possibilità di riforme - di cui il sistema costituzionale italiano ha grande bisogno - né il sorgere di alcun movimento popolare mirato al rinnovamento.

Gli unici a trarre vantaggio politico dai problemi di Berlusconi sono, ad oggi, gli xenofobi della Lega Nord, che alle elezioni per il Parlamento europeo del 6-7 giugno hanno ottenuto dei buoni risultati. La Lega si dimostra ancora una volta un alleato scomodo, come accadde nel dicembre del 1994, quando cadde il primo governo Berlusconi.

Ammesso che sopraggiunga, la fine del regno di Berlusconi potrebbe essere lunga e dolorosa, e annunciare per l'Italia un avvenire cupo. Una vera tragedia.

Geoff Andrews è docente di politca presso la Open University, è co-direttore della rivista Soundings e autore di Un Paese Anormale (effepilibri, 2007) e The slow food story: politics and pleasures (Pluto Press/McGill-Queen's, 2008).

(Traduzione di Marzia Porta)

Berlusconi's Scandal, Italy's Tragedy

posted by Geoff Andrews at Tuesday, July 07, 2009

Open Democracy, 29 - 06 - 2009

The Italian prime minister's corrosion of the country’s public life means that even his departure would offer Italy no clear route to renewal, says Geoff Andrews.
29 - 06 - 2009


Silvio Berlusconi, the most successful populist politician of modern times, has long mastered the art of appealing over the heads of professional politicians to reach the "bellies" rather than the "brains" of ordinary Italians. In his three periods as Italy's prime minister (May 1994-January 1995, June 2001-May 2006, and from May 2008) he has seen off seven centre-left leaders to remain the dominant figure in Italy's political landscape. Berlusconi's ability to dominate the media and turn even critical attention to his advantage have been invaluable assets in this regard.

Could this pattern of domination now be changing? Is Berlusconi's long hegemony approaching its end? The most recent flurry of stories and scandals - concerning his relations with young women, beginning with Noemi Letizia, his 18-year-old friend from Naples who calls him "Papi" - are certainly among the most damaging he has faced; and there is great significance in the fact that he is no longer in control of events.

The media-political storm

Silvio Berlusconi has attracted negative media coverage in the past. What looks different this time is that the near-daily exposures from young women, alleging that he paid for sex, reveal a web of deceit at the heart of Italian politics. True, the private and the public domains have - the prime minister's denials to the contrary - rarely been distinct in his career. What recent events reveal most vividly is the extent to which Silvio Berlusconi's own values have become embedded in Italian public life.

The manner of Berlusconi's contemptuous response to the claims from various women - that he paid for sex with them, or offered them jobs for his TV network or as candidates for his party - reveals a lack of transparency in the Italian political system as well as threats to media freedom that would be unacceptable in any other western democracy. Berlusconi ignored these claims for several weeks, and refused to answer any of the questions posed to him (including in open Democracy - see "Silvio Berlusconi: ten more questions" [5 June 2009] and "Silvio Berlusconi: answers, please" [9 June 2009]).

It was typical that the prime minister should then ignore normal channels of democratic accountability and turn to the gossip magazine, Chi, which he owns, to state his denials. His behaviour suggests that in Italy politics has been replaced by the display of personal omnipotence. How much further will Italy's decrepit political culture and degenerate body-politic be allowed to sink?

Italy hosts the Group of Eight (G8) summit in L'Aquila on 8-10 July 2009, and the performance of the Italian premier will be the primary focus. Berlusconi is more isolated than ever within the international community; he counts only the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, as a close ally. The signs that his diminishing status is further tarnishing Italy's own reputation are widespread, from the embarrassed responses of other leaders to his behaviour to the effort by a group of academics to persuade the G8 "first ladies" to boycott the L'Aquila summit. Even his relations with the Catholic church are strained: after a brief rapprochement when he tried to push through a decree to keep Eluana Englaro alive, his latest indiscretions have caused a series of leading clergy to reproach him (Archbishop Angelo Bagnasco of Genoa pointedly condemned "men drunk on a delirium of their own greatness...").

The crisis goes deeper than his relations with young women. On 21 May 2009, Berlusconi described the Italian parliament as "useless", saying that only 100 MPs were necessary to get the business done and contrasting legislators unfavourably with businessmen. In February 2009, a court ruled that he had bribed the British lawyer David Mills to provide false testimony, even as he himself is protected from prosecution by parliamentary-immunity legislation passed by his own government. Berlusconi has offered no explanation for this. The pattern here of an absence of any commitment to democratic accountability by the country's elected leader has led La Repubblica - which has done an exemplary job in pursuing the truth of Berlusconi's actions - to issue a further ten questions for him to answer (see "Le dieci domande mai poste al Cavaliere" [14 May 2009] and "Le dieci nuove domande al Cavaliere" [La Repubblica, 26 June 2009].

At the same time, the government's own attitudes to the media its does not control are problematic. Berlusconi has urged companies not to advertise in the weekly L'Espresso (a publication from the same media group as La Repubblica). His minister for culture and close ally Sandro Bondi has described La Repubblica as a "threat to democracy" - an extraordinary way to characterise the normal functioning of a newspaper in a free society. In addition, the director of the public broadcaster RAI - part of Berlusconi's media empire - has declined to broadcast details of the claims against Berlusconi (something equivalent to the BBC refusing to cover the parliamentary-expenses scandal in Britain).

Berlusconi and after

Italy is a very divided country, and the adverse international press coverage of its leader - even now - influences only part of the population. Yet, what it has created is a climate of shame and embarrassment amongst Italians within and beyond Italy; that their identity is now bound up with the persona of Silvio Berlusconi. There is growing recognition that things cannot continue as they are. As foreign press criticism has increased, more Italians have been stirred to vent their anger and to call on allies in the west to continue their investigations.

Indeed, some of Silvio Berlusconi's closest allies have suggested to Guy Dinmore, Rome correspondent for the Financial Times, that they are preparing for life without him (see Berlusconi whispers grow louder", Financial Times, 25 June 2009). They are clearly very worried where the current web of dubious and perhaps criminal actions will lead.

Giuliano Ferrara, editor of Il Foglio and one of Berlusconi's most astute intellectual allies, has warned that Italy could have another "24 July" on its hands; a reference to the date in 1943 when Mussolini was dismissed by King Victor Emmanuel III and subsequently set up the Republic of Salo`. Once again, Italy finds itself with a leader obsessed with power, who, having positioned himself above the law and believing himself invincible, may be predisposed to bring others down with him in a last gesture of defiance.

These are worrying times for all who care about Italy, irrespective of their political views. Silvio Berlusconi will not resign easily. If he does relinquish power voluntarily or as the result of pressure, he will lose parliamentary immunity and could face further prosecution. There is no obvious successor from his party who has wide appeal. Yet the opposition remains very weak. There is no prospect for much needed reforms to the Italian constitutional system and, so far, no sign of a popular groundswell for change.

The only political beneficiaries to date from Berlusconi's troubles have been the xenophobic Northern League, which performed well in Italy's elections to the European parliament on 6-7 June. The league can still prove an awkward government partner, as it did in December 1994 when the first Berlusconi government fell. The demise of Silvio Berlusconi's reign, if it is coming, could be protracted and painful; and it could leave Italy's long-term prospects remaining bleak. A tragedy indeed.